Statistics Profile

Joshua Caust-Ellenbogen

1985

Chesapeake Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1450	1070 - 1829	1402	1531
Épée	Direct elimination	1794	924 - 2663	1794	2792
Foil	Pool	1002	253 - 1750	1002	1002
Foil	Direct elimination	1103	0 - 2249	1103	1103

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.