Statistics Profile

Stephen Murray

1961

Las Positas Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1960	1748 - 2171	1926	2268
Épée	Direct elimination	2257	1915 - 2598	2051	2730
Foil	Pool	1926	1566 - 2285	1772	2749
Foil	Direct elimination	1707	899 - 2514	1532	1848

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.