Statistics Profile

Stephen Murray

1961

Las Positas Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1859	1664 - 2053	1859	2267
Épée	Direct elimination	2144	1843 - 2444	2050	2728
Foil	Pool	1927	1567 - 2286	1773	2750
Foil	Direct elimination	1706	898 - 2513	1530	1846

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.