Daniel Berke - FencingTracker

Rain City Fencing Center

Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	DE	1836	1615 - 2056	1759	2372
Foil	Pool	1718	1540 - 1895	1656	2044
Épée	DE	1971	1591 - 2350	1971	2566
Épée	Pool	1744	1516 - 1971	1731	2214
Saber	DE	2921	1482 - 4359	2921	2921
Saber	Pool	2963	1878 - 4047	2963	2963

^* We're quite confident that the person's true strength is somewhere between those numbers. For those statistically inclined, it is a 95% confidence interval of the estimate (i.e., μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

Outcome	Chance	My strength change	Their strength change
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Strength over time

The strength changes are summaries from all events of that day. The dotted line indicates that the strength rating is too uncertain.

Explanation

The strength number is a numeric representation of how a fencer has performed against others historically.

The system "learns" your strength as you fence. It takes about 12 bouts for it to zero in on a good estimate. This is why in the beginning you will often see wild fluctuations.

An unknown fencer starts with a 2500 strength, but with very high uncertainty.

Due to their different natures, pools, direct elimination, and mixed gender bouts are tracked separately.

The lowest possible is zero, average is around 2500, highest possible is around 5000. The scale is not linear, which means that higher numbers are increasingly harder to obtain. To be precise, the distribution of strength numbers looks like a bell curve.

If you beat a much stronger fencer, your strength will go up by a lot. If you beat a much weaker fencer, your strength will go up by little or maybe even not at all. Losses follow the same logic. You can see detailed changes after each bout in the bout history.

Probability of winning doesn't account for difference in fencing styles, familiarity with opponents, or any of such things. It is a reflection of the difference in strength estimates assuming that both of you perform just like you did against others in the past.