Statistics Profile

David Hoornstra

1946

Ann Arbor Dueling Society

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2060	1781 - 2338	1988	2146
Épée	Direct elimination	1708	993 - 2422	1708	2240
Foil	Pool	1479	1034 - 1923	1479	1875
Foil	Direct elimination	1973	1110 - 2835	1973	2510
Saber	Pool	1353	718 - 1987	1353	1353
Saber	Direct elimination	2162	794 - 3529	2162	2162

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.