Statistics Profile

Colby Vargas

1967

Iowa City Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	3153	2483 - 3822	2999	3153
Épée	Direct elimination	2571	1712 - 3429	2571	2656

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.