Statistics Profile

Mary Spohn

1993

Swordplay LA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1954	1514 - 2393	1954	2111
Épée	Direct elimination	1756	924 - 2587	1756	1929
Foil	Pool	2457	1996 - 2917	1818	2457
Foil	Direct elimination	2299	1677 - 2920	2299	2568

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.