Statistics Profile

Rhys Douglas

1991

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2717	2357 - 3076	2569	3404
Foil	Direct elimination	2915	2388 - 3441	2584	3111
Saber	Pool	3407	2650 - 4163	3209	3407
Saber	Direct elimination	3483	2875 - 4090	3402	3868

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.