Statistics Profile

Matthew Cole

1979

South Denver Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1911	1737 - 2084	1911	2916
Épée	Direct elimination	1777	1509 - 2044	1128	2223
Foil	Pool	1489	619 - 2358	1489	1489
Foil	Direct elimination	1949	859 - 3038	1949	1949

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.