Statistics Profile

Samuel McCauley

1988

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2175	1227 - 3122	2175	2175
Épée	Direct elimination	2858	1805 - 3910	2858	2858
Foil	Pool	2094	1666 - 2521	2094	2426
Foil	Direct elimination	2472	1880 - 3063	2369	2472

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.