Statistics Profile

Mark Olson

1957

No Fear Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1503	1262 - 1743	1308	1673
Épée	Direct elimination	1430	858 - 2001	1430	2430
Foil	Pool	1257	413 - 2100	1257	1257
Foil	Direct elimination	2201	818 - 3583	2201	2201
Saber	Pool	1042	376 - 1707	1042	1263
Saber	Direct elimination	1562	392 - 2731	1562	1582

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.