Statistics Profile

Raymond Chen

1996

New York Athletic Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1486	463 - 2508	1486	1486
Épée	Direct elimination	1775	551 - 2998	1775	1775
Foil	Pool	2957	2774 - 3139	2957	3619
Foil	Direct elimination	3479	3174 - 3783	3102	3721

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.