Statistics Profile

Joshua Williams

1990

Denver Fencing Center Purdue Fencing Club-Purdue Univ.

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2892	2409 - 3374	2204	3008
Foil	Direct elimination	2728	2205 - 3250	2079	3064
Saber	Pool	2315	1427 - 3202	2315	2315
Saber	Direct elimination	1752	510 - 2993	1752	1752

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.