Statistics Profile

Christopher Walsh

1988

Ann Arbor Dueling Society

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1824	1319 - 2328	1824	2451
Épée	Direct elimination	2422	1526 - 3317	2390	2422
Foil	Pool	1780	568 - 2991	1780	1780
Foil	Direct elimination	1658	474 - 2841	1658	1658

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.