Statistics Profile

John Christian

1992

Buccaneer Blades Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1969	1797 - 2140	1969	2357
Épée	Direct elimination	2262	2045 - 2478	2087	2573
Foil	Pool	1328	982 - 1673	1328	1640
Foil	Direct elimination	1285	625 - 1944	1023	1507

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.