Statistics Profile

Elizabeth Morgan (Ella)

1996

Nova Fencing Club Boston Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2689	2463 - 2914	2689	2924
Épée	Direct elimination	3190	2781 - 3598	2514	3464
Saber	Pool	2311	2059 - 2562	2254	2786
Saber	Direct elimination	2364	1937 - 2790	2351	2632

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.