Statistics Profile

Evan Arbeitman

1993

Cobra Fencing Club LLC Staten Island Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2178	1271 - 3084	2178	2178
Épée	Direct elimination	2155	1091 - 3218	2155	2155
Foil	Pool	800	19 - 1580	800	800
Foil	Direct elimination	1793	540 - 3045	1793	1793
Saber	Pool	1559	1247 - 1870	1157	1675
Saber	Direct elimination	2060	1558 - 2561	1786	2279

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.