Statistics Profile

Matthew McManigal

1997

Lincoln Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1990	1471 - 2508	1990	3456
Épée	Direct elimination	2556	1894 - 3217	1880	2721
Foil	Pool	2694	1821 - 3566	2694	2694
Foil	Direct elimination	2960	1982 - 3937	2960	2960
Saber	Pool	2713	2353 - 3072	2713	3679
Saber	Direct elimination	2383	1879 - 2886	2370	2915

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.