Statistics Profile

Donald Avey

1951

Worcester Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1309	851 - 1766	1309	1656
Épée	Direct elimination	1635	580 - 2689	1635	2136
Saber	Pool	1235	592 - 1877	1235	1508
Saber	Direct elimination	1493	415 - 2570	1493	1931

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.