Statistics Profile

Nathaniel Lilly

1997

Is this your profile? Register with your USFA ID to claim it.

Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Saber	Pool	2070	1407 - 2732	2070	2422
Saber	Direct elimination	2038	650 - 3425	2038	2038

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Create a free account with your USFA number to unlock projected win chances and strength changes.

Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.