Statistics Profile

Douglas Miller

1983

RedStar Fencing Club Chicago

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2355	2160 - 2549	2355	3241
Foil	Direct elimination	2425	2134 - 2715	2028	2539
Saber	Pool	2200	1983 - 2416	2146	2817
Saber	Direct elimination	2510	2181 - 2838	2060	2570

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.