Statistics Profile

Joseph Serban

1999

Northwest Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1666	1490 - 1841	1648	2088
Foil	Direct elimination	2003	1754 - 2251	1916	2429
Saber	Pool	908	30 - 1785	908	908
Saber	Direct elimination	1589	385 - 2792	1589	1589

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.