Statistics Profile

Michael McIntosh

1963

Fencers Club Inc.

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2046	1597 - 2494	2009	2100
Épée	Direct elimination	1690	587 - 2792	1690	1937
Foil	Pool	1748	1252 - 2243	1716	1939
Foil	Direct elimination	1649	494 - 2803	1649	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.