Statistics Profile

Caleb Goodson

1996

Smokey Mountain Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1984	934 - 3033	1984	1984
Épée	Direct elimination	1685	484 - 2885	1685	1685
Foil	Pool	1903	1534 - 2271	1833	3095
Foil	Direct elimination	2576	2112 - 3039	2576	2938

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.