Statistics Profile

Isaac Ariza

2003

Masters Fencing Club Ohio University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2870	2241 - 3498	2870	3205
Épée	Direct elimination	2550	1506 - 3593	2550	2643
Foil	Pool	3065	2880 - 3249	2934	3570
Foil	Direct elimination	3424	3215 - 3632	2752	3691

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.