Statistics Profile

Adam Katwan

1998

University of Chicago Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1800	1185 - 2414	1800	1800
Épée	Direct elimination	1919	892 - 2945	1919	1919
Foil	Pool	2198	1775 - 2620	2198	2355
Foil	Direct elimination	2515	1890 - 3139	2515	2727

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.