Statistics Profile

Sebastian Curley

2002

San Francisco Fencers Club Lawrence University Fencing NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2842	2656 - 3027	1996	2878
Foil	Direct elimination	2991	2704 - 3277	2634	3159

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.