Statistics Profile

Donald Watson

1955

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2329	1928 - 2729	2329	2736
Épée	Direct elimination	1961	1158 - 2763	1961	2429
Saber	Pool	2020	1348 - 2691	2020	2107
Saber	Direct elimination	1951	895 - 3006	1951	2041

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.