Statistics Profile

Colin Niebergall

2004

Denver Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2735	2558 - 2911	2735	3139
Épée	Direct elimination	3101	2856 - 3345	2802	3403
Saber	Pool	2033	1115 - 2950	2033	2033
Saber	Direct elimination	2053	734 - 3371	2053	2053

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.