Statistics Profile

Matthew Chan

1996

American Fencing Academy Of Dayton

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2521	2324 - 2717	2503	3532
Épée	Direct elimination	2850	2624 - 3075	2084	2919
Foil	Pool	2437	2250 - 2623	2299	2679
Foil	Direct elimination	2597	2379 - 2814	2597	2848
Saber	Pool	2601	1875 - 3326	2601	2601
Saber	Direct elimination	2637	1861 - 3412	2637	2637

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.