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Statistics Profile

Grace Hayes

2002
New York University NCAA Denver Fencing Center
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Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Foil Pool 2022 1476 - 2567 1983 2103
Foil Direct elimination 1831 700 - 2961 1831 2080
Saber Pool 2255 2075 - 2434 2255 3157
Saber Direct elimination 2632 2335 - 2928 2132 2654

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.