Statistics Profile

Michael Erdek

1962
Long Island Fencing Center

Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 1729 1405 - 2052 1505 1953
Épée Direct elimination 1293 388 - 2197 1293 1943
Foil Pool 1766 1141 - 2390 1374 1766
Foil Direct elimination 1760 629 - 2890 1760 2092
Saber Pool 1566 769 - 2362 1566 1566
Saber Direct elimination 2051 663 - 3438 2051 2051

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.