Statistics Profile

Jakub Nowak

1998

Illinois Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2804	2626 - 2981	2773	3182
Épée	Direct elimination	3119	2926 - 3311	3119	3669
Foil	Pool	2901	2270 - 3531	2901	3324
Foil	Direct elimination	2358	1733 - 2982	2358	2870

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.