Statistics Profile

Arwen Gormley (Arwen)

2002

Temple University NCAA Zeta Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Saber	Pool	2725	2542 - 2907	2676	2863
Saber	Direct elimination	2929	2645 - 3212	2792	3203

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.