Statistics Profile

Chris Goeloe

1971

Ann Arbor Dueling Society

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Direct elimination	2248	1062 - 3433	2248	2248
Saber	Pool	1349	728 - 1969	1349	1380
Saber	Direct elimination	1822	595 - 3048	1822	1822

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.