Statistics Profile

Evan Moore

2000

Penn State University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2049	1208 - 2889	2049	2049
Foil	Direct elimination	2454	1510 - 3397	2454	2454
Saber	Pool	2301	2063 - 2538	2079	2383
Saber	Direct elimination	2715	2308 - 3121	2284	3087

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.