Statistics Profile

Spencer Burke

2005

Pennsylvania State University NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2627	2328 - 2925	2554	3290
Épée	Direct elimination	2988	2524 - 3451	2714	3012
Foil	Pool	3253	3075 - 3430	2949	3402
Foil	Direct elimination	3481	3310 - 3651	2374	3609

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.