Statistics Profile

Ellen Geddes

1988

Shepherd Swords Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2572	1007 - 4136	2572	2572
Foil	Pool	3117	1950 - 4283	3011	3117
Foil	Direct elimination	2807	1423 - 4190	2807	2807
Saber	Pool	3069	1687 - 4450	3069	3069

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.