Statistics Profile

Erica Julien

1945

Forge Fencing Teams DUR Cape Fear Fencing Association

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1399	1228 - 1569	1334	3137
Épée	Direct elimination	1568	1373 - 1762	1113	2168
Foil	Pool	1223	827 - 1618	1061	1223
Foil	Direct elimination	1382	785 - 1978	1110	1839
Saber	Pool	1224	1045 - 1402	1224	2007
Saber	Direct elimination	1628	1350 - 1905	1600	2496

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.