Statistics Profile

Nathan Hayes

2001

Richmond Fencing Club Virginia Tech Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1792	1453 - 2130	1792	2413
Épée	Direct elimination	2127	1729 - 2524	1905	2548
Foil	Pool	1906	1700 - 2111	1906	3046
Foil	Direct elimination	1973	1707 - 2238	1973	2447

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.