Statistics Profile

Andrew Stencel

1997

Illinois Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2303	2128 - 2477	2283	3102
Épée	Direct elimination	2411	2172 - 2649	2354	2950
Foil	Pool	2298	1477 - 3118	2298	2298
Foil	Direct elimination	1872	522 - 3221	1872	1872
Saber	Pool	1642	1290 - 1993	1326	1642
Saber	Direct elimination	1691	1005 - 2376	1691	2314

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.