Jake Thayer - FencingTracker

University of Incarnate Word Fencing NCAA / Olympian Fencing Club

Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Saber	DE	3515	3034 - 3995	3515	3812
Saber	Pool	2667	2316 - 3017	2667	3517
Épée	DE	3407	3151 - 3662	2648	3407
Épée	Pool	3054	2811 - 3296	2184	3363
Foil	DE	3131	2859 - 3402	2779	3520
Foil	Pool	3099	2889 - 3308	2900	3237

^* We're quite confident that the person's true strength is somewhere between those numbers. For those statistically inclined, it is a 95% confidence interval of the estimate (i.e., μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

Outcome	Chance	My strength change	Their strength change
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Strength over time

The strength changes are summaries from all events of that day. The dotted line indicates that the strength rating is too uncertain.

Explanation

The strength number is a numeric representation of how a fencer has performed against others historically.

The system "learns" your strength as you fence. It takes about 12 bouts for it to zero in on a good estimate. This is why in the beginning you will often see wild fluctuations.

An unknown fencer starts with a 2500 strength, but with very high uncertainty.

Due to their different natures, pools, direct elimination, and mixed gender bouts are tracked separately.

The lowest possible is zero, average is around 2500, highest possible is around 5000. The scale is not linear, which means that higher numbers are increasingly harder to obtain. To be precise, the distribution of strength numbers looks like a bell curve.

If you beat a much stronger fencer, your strength will go up by a lot. If you beat a much weaker fencer, your strength will go up by little or maybe even not at all. Losses follow the same logic. You can see detailed changes after each bout in the bout history.

Probability of winning doesn't account for difference in fencing styles, familiarity with opponents, or any of such things. It is a reflection of the difference in strength estimates assuming that both of you perform just like you did against others in the past.