Statistics Profile

Jake Thayer

Verified
2000
Fort Bend Fencing Academy Olympian Fencing Club

Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 2828 2640 - 3015 2184 3363
Épée Direct elimination 3192 3000 - 3383 2648 3413
Foil Pool 2922 2722 - 3121 2900 3237
Foil Direct elimination 3038 2798 - 3277 2779 3520
Saber Pool 2674 2324 - 3023 2667 3517
Saber Direct elimination 3530 3058 - 4001 3515 3812

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.