Statistics Profile

Jake Thayer

2000

Olympian Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2821	2635 - 3006	2184	3363
Épée	Direct elimination	3169	2976 - 3361	2648	3413
Foil	Pool	2920	2722 - 3117	2900	3237
Foil	Direct elimination	3046	2801 - 3290	2779	3520
Saber	Pool	2673	2323 - 3022	2667	3517
Saber	Direct elimination	3528	3055 - 4000	3515	3812

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.