Statistics Profile

Aidan Lawler

2003

Rain City Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2672	2503 - 2840	1836	2721
Épée	Direct elimination	2885	2667 - 3102	1664	2907
Foil	Pool	2352	1641 - 3062	2124	2352
Foil	Direct elimination	2291	1447 - 3134	2291	2418

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.