Statistics Profile

Daniel Ra

2003

Tim Morehouse Fencing Club (Port Chester)

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2859	2689 - 3028	2840	3807
Épée	Direct elimination	3281	3068 - 3493	2726	3354

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.