Statistics Profile

Will Nop

2002

Vermont Fencing Alliance

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2084	1853 - 2314	2078	2524
Épée	Direct elimination	2517	2020 - 3013	2305	2733
Foil	Pool	1460	641 - 2278	1460	1460
Foil	Direct elimination	2691	1208 - 4173	2691	2691

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.