Statistics Profile

Henry Shugart

2002

University Of North Carolina/Chapel Hill NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	3104	2929 - 3278	2740	3241
Épée	Direct elimination	3509	3302 - 3715	3385	4191
Foil	Direct elimination	2616	1707 - 3524	2616	2616
Saber	Pool	1877	1331 - 2422	1715	1981
Saber	Direct elimination	1772	550 - 2993	1772	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.