Statistics Profile

Nolan McGrane-Moffitt

2004

Fencing Academy Of Philadelphia - University City

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1982	1785 - 2178	1727	2047
Épée	Direct elimination	2033	1693 - 2372	1717	2033
Foil	Pool	1744	1458 - 2029	1575	1905
Foil	Direct elimination	1670	1053 - 2286	1670	2286

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.