Statistics Profile

Joshua Ryan

1997

Boston Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2249	2040 - 2457	2245	2599
Épée	Direct elimination	2601	2250 - 2951	2601	3133
Foil	Pool	2133	1495 - 2770	2133	2133
Saber	Pool	2104	1740 - 2467	2104	2671
Saber	Direct elimination	2665	1910 - 3419	1882	2665

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.