Statistics Profile

Matthew Chin

2005

Miracle Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1811	1039 - 2582	1811	1811
Épée	Direct elimination	1625	449 - 2800	1625	1625
Saber	Pool	2615	2438 - 2791	2321	2923
Saber	Direct elimination	2918	2742 - 3093	1650	2934

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.