Statistics Profile

Aaron Buergenthal

2004

The Ohio State University NCAA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2445	1577 - 3312	2445	2445
Épée	Direct elimination	1806	467 - 3144	1806	1806
Saber	Pool	2981	2806 - 3155	2842	3798
Saber	Direct elimination	3155	2973 - 3336	2967	3480

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.