Statistics Profile

Allen Chen

2005

Bluegrass Fencers' Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	3168	2055 - 4280	3168	3168
Épée	Direct elimination	3329	2322 - 4335	3329	3329
Foil	Pool	3471	3289 - 3652	2106	3510
Foil	Direct elimination	3887	3712 - 4061	2762	3905

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.